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Friday, 30 October 2020

How Trump Will Win



Predicted Result: 305-233


I predicted Trump’s win in 2016. The revolt of White America will continue in 2020.

Trump will win. It will likely be 305–233. This is my prediction of what the map will look like. I predicted Trump’s election in 2016 and was mocked right up until election night. I knew something that other people didn’t, because I am very plugged in to dissident right wing online circles.

You can skip the initial paragraphs of my interpretation of 2016 and why that will happen again in 2020, which includes an analysis of a greater political realignment I perceive, and go right to my reasons for the predictions I’m making this year. This includes a state-by-state analysis of the important states and my interpretation of Alan Lichtman’s 13 Keys to the White House, and why I think after 10 elections he has finally called it wrong this year.

In 2016 I could sense that, although Trump would not win the popular vote due to the many millions of hispanics who have arrived in California in recent decades, there was a groundswell of support in white working class rural towns across the country, particularly in the pivotal rustbelt states. This prediction turned out to be true, and people who only watch the mainstream media were shocked — like I said, I was mocked fairly mercilessly by friends of mine who claimed to be political experts right up until the afternoon of that fateful November day. Now people I know have written off me off again, saying that my second prediction is wrong and my first was a fluke.

The reason I think I am right again is really the same reason as I was right in 2016. I can sense a groundswell of support for the re-election of Donald Trump from the white rural and to an extent suburban region of the United States, areas that can with increasing accuracy be described as in a state of unofficial open revolt against the neoliberal and neoconservative status quo that has dominated the country for 60 years.

These areas are heavily Christian and heavily Old Stock white Americans and are composed of people who are not concerned with traditional GOP issues: Israel, Corporate tax rates, giving subsidies to big agriculture, waging wars to benefit the military industrial complex, providing cheap foreign immigrant labour to firm owners, shipping jobs overseas to benefit corporations, and writing free trade deals which eliminate entire sectors of the American economy while enriching themselves. They reject this brand of neoconservatism.

They recognize that Trump is a different type of Republican, who while paying lip service to the first three of the GOP issues mentioned above, is truly a revolutionary candidate. Like Michael Moore said in 2016, Donald Trump is the “molotov cocktail, or human hand grenade” that the deindustrialized rural towns can hurl at the distant Washington establishment which stole their lives from them.

Revolt against the elites

Trump’s economic populism appeals to this new base, composed of traditional republicans who were against neo conservatism all along, and former Democrats (especially in the rustbelt) who are disgusted with the DNC’s embrace of neoliberalism. The DNC is now the party of free trade deals, foreign wars and massive endless legal and illegal immigration. They can trick people in the big cities into voting for this toxic blend of policies with promises of healthcare reform, abortion rights, and legal marijuana. Rural areas, however, just wanted a party that protected the working man. That’s why they’ve turned to Donald Trump’s economic nationalism.

The other major factor is, of course, Trump’s cultural populism. Before Trump the GOP rejected economic populism, knowing they could get away with this in the rural towns if they pretended to be culturally populist. Now comes along a man who isn’t pretending.

He wants to Make American Great Again. You know what that means to working class rural people in a diner listening to the phrase on TV, right? Well regardless, Trump said it himself. When he was asked when America was great, he pointed to “the late forties and fifties”.

Will Norman Rockwell’s vision win again?

He is opposed to the toppling of historical statues, the mainstreaming of politically correct speech and gender ideology, the renaming of confederate bases, obsessing over systemic racism, viewing American history as a basically tragic and racist time period defined by genocide and slavery, and ‘anti-racism’ training. So is is white base. But it goes further than that.

The brand of endless cultural change embraced by the Democrats, who are now almost purely a cosmopolitan Big City party, is inseparable from their support of wholesale demographic change. America has gone from 90% white to 60% white in 60 years due to large-scale immigration, and if immigration continues at the 1 million-per-year level America will become minority white in the 2040s.

This demographic change is just revolting to Trump’s white base. They watch as their historically Northern Anglo, Pennsylvania Dutch, Italian, German, Irish, or Southern Anglo towns become mostly Mexican and to the shock of people living in New York, they aren’t actually pleased with the wholesale transformation of the character of their communities. They applaud as Trump builds a massive fence on the border and crafts increasingly Kafkaesque regulations to keep as many foreign workers and immigrants as possible out.

This makes them unforgivable racists to white Big City dwellers who have apartments on both coasts, couldn’t name the ethnicity of their grandparents, and prefer the company and food of foreigners. They support the demographic and cultural transformation of America, and they vote Democrat.

When it comes to this issue Asians, Blacks, and hispanics are divided into three camps: most are content for American to be demographically transformed so they vote Democrat. A small minority are attached to the same historic conception of the United States that Trump’s base is — despite not being prototypical examples of the conception themselves, and vote Republican. The third camp isn’t attached to the historic conception of the nation, but votes Republican because of a general conservatism.

This, then, is the historic realignment that I believe is taking place. Trump’s brand of economic and cultural populism is appealing to the white working class rural section of the country, and a small but sufficient minority of non-white voters, to win another term. My analysis of the greater situation concluded, below is my reasoning in the form of a state-by-state analysis and an interpretation of Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys.

State-By-State


Methodology: I am basing my predictions this year partly on Trafalgar polls, and partly on intuition based on my knowledge of different states. This is an hour-long interview of Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group polling firm that really shows how Trafalgar is a reputable organization. They come out with controversial predictions, true, but they were right in 2016. This is because they take into account psychological factors like social desirability bias and ask innovative questions to figure out voter’s true intentions.

Arizona(11): RED. The mainstream polls are wrong on Arizona, the win will be slim but Trump’s somewhat better showing with hispanics this year (Arizona is 31% hispanic) and an enthusiastic base are the reason Arizona goes red.

Arizona Presidential Poll, October 6–8, Trafalgar Group


Florida (29): RED. Florida has a huge hispanic population but it’s the capitalist kind (Miami Cubans who fled Castro, Venezuelans who don’t like bread lines). And there’s a lot of older conservative white voters. It will be a close race, but it’ll be red like in 2016.

Florida Presidential poll, October 11–13, Trafalgar Group


Georgia(16): RED. The Democrats will try to get the black vote, the Republicans will try to get the white vote. But despite what the main polls say, Georgia is not in play for Democrats. This poll below is from July, but I don’t think it has changed in favour of Democrats since then.

Georgia Presidential poll, July 15–18 Trafalgar group


Iowa (6) RED. Trump won in 2016 by nearly 10 points, it may well be closer this time around, but he won’t lose.

Michigan (16) RED. Although the larger cities will vote Democrat, the rural towns will vote Trump as they did in 2016. The additional factors of race riots will push some voters towards Trump out of fear. It will be a close win for Trump.

Michigan Presidential poll, October 11–14, Trafalgar Group


Wisconsin (10) RED. This will be another close win for Trump, with the rural areas delivering him a victory like in 2016. The riots in Kenosha are an additional positive factor. This poll is close, but I believe Trump will close the gap before election day.

Wisconsin Presidential poll, October 14–16


Minnesota (10) BLUE. Minnesota went to Clinton narrowly in 2016. I initially thought that the state would switch to Trump this year, especially given that the worst of the Black Lives Matter rioting took place in Minneapolis, with entire city blocks levelled. This will benefit Trump somewhat, but it seems that even despite this he is still down in the polls. Minnesota is proving to be a harder state to flip red than Michigan or Wisconsin, and the 2020 results will reflect this.



Nevada (6) BLUE. A close election, a rural-urban divide, and a Democrat victory.

New Hampshire (4) BLUE. It will be close like 2016, but despite Trump’s efforts he won’t win this time either.

North Carolina (15) RED. North Carolina will be close, but Trump is winning — see poll below.

North Carolina Presidential poll, October 20–22, Trafalgar Group


Ohio (18): RED. Trump won big in 2016, he will win again. It’s a given that mainstream media will be very wrong that Ohio was ever in play in 2020.

Ohio Presidential poll, October 1–3, Trafalgar Group


Pennsylvania (20) RED. There are a few factors at play here. Firstly, Trump won here in 2016. The Amish are supporting Trump in bigger numbers than in 2016. There are urban riots in Philadelphia right now, scaring people in the city and the suburbs. Biden’s support of restrictions on oil and gas is very unpopular here.

Pennsylvania Presidential poll, October 24–25, Trafalgar Group


Texas (38) RED. Texas has become half immigrant so it’s close, but the polls and early results show that it is not yet going Democrat. This poll is from August.

Texas Presidential poll, August 1–5, Trafalgar Group


Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys to the White House


If six or more of the keys are false, the challenger wins. That’s how Professor Lichtman has correctly predicted every US election since 1984. This time he’s wrong.

1. Party Mandate: “After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.”

Lichtman: FALSE
Donovan: FALSE

2. Contest: “The incumbent-party nominee gets at least two-thirds of the vote on the first ballot at the nominating convention.”

Lichtman: TRUE
Donovan: TRUE

3. Incumbency: “The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.”

Lichtman: TRUE
Donovan: TRUE

4. Third party: “There is no third-party or independent candidacy that wins at least 5% of the vote.”

Lichtman: TRUE
Donovan: TRUE

5. Short-term economy: “The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.”

Lichtman: FALSE
Donovan: FALSE

6. Long-term economy: “Real (constant-dollar) per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth for the preceding two terms.”

Lichtman: FALSE
Donovan: FALSE

7. Policy change: “The administration achieves a major policy change during the term, on the order of the New Deal or the first-term Reagan revolution.”

Lichtman: TRUE
Donovan: TRUE

8. Social unrest: “There has been no major social unrest during the term, sufficient to cause deep concerns about the unraveling of society.”

Lichtman: FALSE
Donovan: FALSE

9. Scandal: “There is no broad recognition of a scandal that directly touches the president.”

Lichtman: FALSE
Donovan: FALSE

10. Foreign/military failure: “There has been no military or foreign policy failure during the term, substantial enough that it appears to undermine America’s national interests significantly or threaten its standing in the world.”

Lichtman: TRUE
Donovan: TRUE

11. Foreign/military success: “There has been a military or foreign policy success during the term substantial enough to advance America’s national interests or improve its standing in the world.”

Lichtman: FALSE
Donovan: TRUE. Trump’s troop withdrawals constitute an advancement of American interests in the eyes of his base. One might add his peace-making with North Korea and his numerous peace deals brokered between Arab states and Israel.

12. Incumbent charisma: “The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or is a national hero.”

Lichtman: FALSE
Donovan: TRUE. Trump is undeniably charismatic, which is why he has such a cult following and draws large crowds to rallies. This is the Lichtman interpretation that I really don’t understand, because even many Trump opponents will admit that he has a strong hold on his followers. Of course, the whole country isn’t drawn in by the charisma, but I think enough people in the right states are.

13. Challenger charisma: “The challenger is not charismatic and is not a national hero.”

Lichtman: TRUE
Donovan: TRUE

Final analysis of the 13 Keys


Lichtman: Seven FALSE, challenger wins.

Donovan: Five FALSE, challenger loses.

And there you have it. Will the polling style of the mainstream media or the Trafalgar Group prevail? Who interpreted the keys correctly, professor Lichtman or upstart Donovan? Today is October 29th, and the next edit I make to this article will be on election day. The proof of this can be found in the discussion section of my Youtube channel, where you will see that this article and my electoral count prediction was posted on October 29th.



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