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Monday, 22 October 2018

Andrew Scheer Is A Nowhere Man

by Tim Murray

Andrew Scheer on Twitter: "Had a blast at the Brampton Malayalee Samajam's 8th Canadian Nehru Trophy Boat Race!"

My message is that the Conservative Party is an inclusive party, that welcomes the contributions of people of the Muslim faith, and I’m glad that they make up our cultural fabric.
— Andrew Scheer, July 2017
He's a real nowhere man
Sitting in his nowhere land
Making all his nowhere plans for nobody
Doesn't have a point of view
Knows not where he's going to...
— The Beatles


How time flies. Do you know that it was three years ago that Canadian voters rejected the Harper Conservatives and awarded victory to Justin Trudeau? October 19th, 2015. A night that will live in infamy. Thank God that is all behind us now. Thank God we have dug ourselves out of a big hole. Or have we?

Quick answer: no. When Harper went down, the Conservatives won 32% of the popular vote—about 7 points behind the Liberals. Where are they at now? 32%—about 7 points behind the Liberals.

Whatever arguments can be summoned on Andrew Scheer’s behalf, the verdict is clear. With a year and a half of leadership under his belt, he has failed to turn the tables on Trudeau’s Liberals. To say that Andrew Scheer did not take the country by storm would be an understatement of mammoth proportions. As if he was auditioning for the role of an impotent bystander, it took him eight months to lead the polls by 2 points, only to relinquish it soon after, and then slid back to his starting point. From 33% to 38% to 32%. Not a promising trajectory. So the post-Harper Conservatives took a year and half to climb out of the rut and a few months to return to it. A rut, in case you haven’t heard, is a coffin with both ends knocked out of it.

Yet we are told to hold fast to Andrew Scheer. We are told that a vote for Maxime Bernier is a vote for Justin Trudeau. We are told that Andrew Scheer is the only leader who can defeat Justin Trudeau. We are told that unless we all get behind the Scheer Conservatives, Justin Trudeau is certain to win another term in office. Unfortunately, the evidence does not back up this claim.

Let’s take a closer look at the stats. Lets take a look at the aggregate polling results of 14 different polling companies. After peaking in March of this year at 38%, Scheer’s Conservative Party today (October 9, 2018) is 1% below where it was when he took it over 18 months ago. At 32.1 %, the Scheer Conservatives are statistically no higher than they were when the party was defeated in October of 2015, when it won 32% of the popular vote, 7% less than the Liberals. Here we are three years later, and the gap between the two parties is more or less the same, at 5.7%. Can you spell “stagnation”?

As it stands now, poll analysts reckoned that the Trudeau Liberals have a 73.7% chance of winning a majority government, as opposed to the Conservatives at 8.1%. And if an election was held today, the Liberals would win 186 seats and the Conservatives 121. You read it right. Only 121 seats.

After having a very bad summer and spring, Trudeau's party somehow managed to restore the lead they had last winter. Post Bernier's departure, the Liberals lost 3% in the polls while the Conservative lost 6%! Bernier no sooner got out of the starting gate when he surpassed Jagmeet Singh! (OK, OK. Besting the Turbanator is kind of like winning an arm wrestling match against Don Knotts).

The point here is that if Scheer is going to lose the election anyway, why not at least back a horse that is going in our direction? If not Bernier's party, then another one even closer to our goals? Why continue to vest our hopes in the fantasy that one day—one day—the federal Conservatives will become the party we want it to be?

Maybe things need to get a lot worse in this country before there is a substantial shift away from the globalist parties. If that is the case, then one must admit that there is no politician better equipped to make it worse than Justin Trudeau.

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